Latvian Forest Development Fund — LV0000113322 — 14.5%/an · 31 mois

Plateforme · 17.0/25

A1 · Statut réglementaire 5.0/8

FCMC investment licence (Latvia) obtained in September 2021
Recognised EU regulator, but investment licence ≠ explicit ECSP passport
Recognised EU equivalent → 5 points

A2 · Track Record 5.0/6bon

Default 0% → 6/6
Delay >90 days 0% → 6/6
Actual return vs announced return not disclosed → 0/6
A2 = (6×0.5)+(6×0.3)+(0×0.2) = 4.8, rounded to 5
Caveat: statistics cover ABS, not underlying loans

A3 · Rigueur de sélection 2.0/4

Transition to ABS model involves a structured selection process (FCMC licenced), but selection rate not published and process poorly detailed publicly → 2 points

A4 · Santé financière 3.0/4bon

Independent platform operational for >3 years (2021+), active in 2026, no platform distress signal identified
No known institutional shareholder → 3 points

A5 · Protection investisseurs 2.0/3

Investor protection EUR 20,000 provided by Latvian law (1 regulatory point)
FCMC licence implies continuity plan (1 point)
Secondary market or segregated escrow not confirmed → 0 points third criterion

Projet · 40.0/75 (43.0 brut, red flags −3)

B1 · Instrument & Structure 6.0/10

B1.1: 2/5 - obligation convertible/note on loan pool, possible subordination

B1.2: 2/3 - Direct borrowing from originator, recognised EU Latvian law

B1.3: 2/2 - No documented senior debt, de facto priority ranking

B2 · Opérateur & Track record 8.0/15

B2.1: 2/4 - LFDF entity named, managers not identified in file

B2.2: 3/5 - NBFI active >2 years, €52M outstanding, documented forestry activity, partial balance sheet

B2.3: 2/3 - First note repaid without incident on Debitum (May 2025)

B2.4: 1/3 - Opaque inter-company structures flagged, platform/originator links questioned

B3 · Garanties & Sûretés 8.0/15

B3.1: 6/9 - Pledge on underlying loan portfolio; partial documented forestry collateral

B3.2: 2/4 - LFDF fonds propres not communicated precisely, growing activity but gearing unknown

B3.3: 2/2 - LFDF licensed originator active >2 years, constitutes the financial institutional partner

B4 · Structure financière 8.0/15

B4.1: 3/5 - taux de couverture de la dette estimated 1.5-2.0 based on activity and outstanding; precise data absent

B4.2: 2/4 - Equity contribution partially documented via acquired forestry assets

B4.3: 2/4 - No formal stress test; portfolio Loan-to-Value (ratio prêt/valeur actif) not detailed, -10% scenario not documented

B4.4: 1/2 - 35% margin on forestry transactions but taux de couverture de la dette on loan portfolio not confirmed >2.0

B5 · Pré-commercialisation 6.0/10

Active portfolio of €52M, partial documented diversification, partial history on Debitum
LFDF concentration = 86% platform → notable concentration risk
Score 6/10

B6 · Permis & Maturité 5.0/5✓ max

NBFI activity established >2 years, Latvian regulator licence in order, valid legal documents, active licences

B7 · Marché & Localisation 2.0/3

Latvian SME/corporate loan market in strong growth (+18.6% in 2025), credit/GDP low (29%)
Risks: GDP slowdown 2026 (1.4%), inflationary pressures, export/transport sectors weakened → 2/3

Points forts

✓LFDF first Debitum originator with €52M outstanding, documented rapid growth.

✓First note fully repaid with interest in May 2025.

✓Latvian SME loan market in significant expansion (+18.6% in 2025).

✓Forestry activity generating margin (35% per documented transaction).

✓Latvian FCMC regulator licence in force, solid legal structure.

Risques identifiés

!Opaque inter-company structures between LFDF and Debitum flagged by Re:think P2P analyst.

!LFDF represents 86% of Debitum outstanding: excessive concentration on single originator.

!LFDF managers not identified in file, limited transparency.

!Rate 14.5%/year at upper limit for SME-NBFI; underlying real guarantees not detailed.

!Latvian GDP slowdown forecast at 1.4% in 2026, stagflation risk on exposed sectors.

⚠ Avertissement sur les risques

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